COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE): using retrospective Dutch hospital data to develop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit admission in patients who present at the emergency department with suspected COVID-19

ObjectivesDevelop simple and valid models for predicting mortality and need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission in patients who present at the emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19.DesignRetrospective.SettingSecondary care in four large Dutch hospitals.ParticipantsPatients who presented at the ED and were admitted to hospital with suspected COVID-19. We used 5831 first-wave patients who presented between March and August 2020 for model development and 3252 second-wave patients who presented between September and December 2020 for model validation.Outcome measuresWe developed separate logistic regression models for in-hospital death and for need for ICU admission, both within 28 days after hospital admission. Based on prior literature, we considered quickly and objectively obtainable patient characteristics, vital parameters and blood test values as predictors. We assessed model performance by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and by calibration plots.ResultsOf 5831 first-wave patients, 629 (10.8%) died within 28 days after admission. ICU admission was fully recorded for 2633 first-wave patients in 2 hospitals, with 214 (8.1%) ICU admissions within 28 days. A simple model—COVID outcome prediction in the emergency department (COPE)—with age, respiratory rate, C reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin and urea captured most of the ability to predict death. COPE was well calibrated and showed good discrimination for mortality in second-wave patients (AUC in four hospitals: 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86);0.82 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.90);0.79 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.88);0.83 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.86)). COPE was also able to identify patients at high risk of needing ICU admission in second-wave patients (AUC in two hospitals: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.90);0.81 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.95)).ConclusionsCOPE is a simple tool that is well able to predict mortality and need for ICU admission in patients who present to the ED with suspected COVID-19 and may help patients and doctors in decision making.

Altered fibrin network structure and fibrinolysis in intensive care unit patients with COVID-19, not entirely explaining the increased risk of thrombosis.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection is associated with an increased incidence of thrombosis. OBJECTIVES: By studying the fibrin network structure of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, we aimed to unravel pathophysiological mechanisms that contribute to this increased risk of thrombosis. This may contribute to optimal prevention and treatment of COVID-19 related thrombosis. PATIENTS/METHODS: In this case-control study, we collected plasma samples from intensive care unit (ICU) patients with COVID-19, with and without confirmed thrombosis, between April and December 2020. Additionally, we collected plasma from COVID-19 patients admitted to general wards without thrombosis, from ICU patients with pneumococcal infection, and from healthy controls. Fibrin fiber diameters and fibrin network density were quantified in plasma clots imaged with stimulated emission depletion microscopy and confocal microscopy. Finally, we determined the sensitivity to fibrinolysis. RESULTS: COVID-19 ICU patients (n = 37) and ICU patients with pneumococcal disease (n = 7) showed significantly higher fibrin densities and longer plasma clot lysis times than healthy controls (n = 7). No differences were observed between COVID-19 ICU patients with and without thrombosis, or ICU patients with pneumococcal infection. At a second time point, after diagnosis of thrombosis or at a similar time point in patients without thrombosis, we observed thicker fibers and longer lysis times in COVID-19 ICU patients with thrombosis (n = 19) than in COVID-19 ICU patients without thrombosis (n = 18). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that severe COVID-19 is associated with a changed fibrin network structure and decreased susceptibility to fibrinolysis. Because these changes were not exclusive to COVID-19 patients, they may not explain the increased thrombosis risk.

Case report: a fatal combination of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis with extensive pulmonary microvascular damage in COVID-19 pneumonia.

The clinical features of COVID-19 have a considerable range from a mild illness to severe disease. Underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of the rapidly progressive, and often fatal, pulmonary disease frequently observed in COVID-19 need to be elucidated, in order to develop new treatment strategies for different disease endotypes. Fatal cases can display features of a cytokine storm, which may be related to hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. Also, a spectrum of vascular changes, including microvascular damage, is known to accompany severe COVID-19. In this paper, we describe the co-occurrence of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis and extensive pulmonary microvascular damage with thrombosis and its sequelae in a patient with fatal COVID-19. We believe these response patterns may be linked by common mechanisms involving hypercytokinemia and require further investigation as a fatal constellation in COVID-19, to generate appropriate treatment in patients who display these combined features.